{"product_id":"superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction","title":"Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction","description":"\u003ctable align=\"center\" border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"2\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"100%\"\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd class=\"productDetailSmallElements\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eBrief Description\u003c\/strong\u003e:\u003cbr\u003e\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are \"superforecasters.\" In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic\"--\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eReview Quotes\u003c\/strong\u003e:\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cb\u003eA \u003ci\u003eNew York Times \u003c\/i\u003eEditors' Choice\u003cbr\u003eA \u003ci\u003eWashington Post \u003c\/i\u003eBestseller\u003cbr\u003eA Hudson Booksellers Best Business Interest Book of 2015\u003cbr\u003eLonglisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award\u003cbr\u003eWinner of the Axiom Business Book Award in Business Theory (Gold Medal) \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"A top choice [for best book of 2015] among the world's biggest names in finance and economics... Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joe LaVorgna, and Citigroup Vice Chairman Peter Orszag were among those giving it a thumbs-up.\" \n\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003e--\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eBloomberg Business\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"The material in \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e is new, and includes a compendium of best practices for prediction... The accuracy that ordinary people regularly attained through their meticulous application did amaze me... [It offers] us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eNew York Times Book Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Tetlock's thesis is that politics and human affairs are not inscrutable mysteries. Instead, they are a bit like weather forecasting, where short-term predictions are possible and reasonably accurate... The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Economist \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Tetlock's work is fascinating and important, and he and Gardner have written it up here with verve.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Financial Times \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\" \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e is the most important scientific study I've ever read on prediction.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003cb\u003eCass R. Sunstein\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e, The Bloomberg View \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Just as modern medicine began when a farsighted few began to collect data and keep track of outcomes, to trust objective 'scoring' over their own intuitions, it's time now for similar demands to be made of the experts who lead public opinion. It's time for evidence-based forecasting.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e--The Washington Post \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\" \n\u003ci\u003e\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, is one of the most interesting business and finance books published in 2015.\" \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003e--\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cb\u003eJohn Kay, \u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e The Financial Times \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"One of Tetlock's key points is that these aren't innate skills: they can be both taught and learned... Tetlock's 'Ten Commandments For Aspiring Superforecasters' should probably have a place of honor in most business meeting rooms.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eForbes \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"The key to becoming a better forecaster, if not a super one, according to Tetlock is the same as any other endeavor: practice, practice, practice.\" \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003e--\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Street \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"In this captivating book, Tetlock argues that success is all about the approach: foresight is not a gift but rather a product of a particular way of thinking... In each chapter, the author augments his research with compelling interviews, anecdotes, and historical context, using accessible real-world examples to frame what could otherwise be dense subject matter. His writing is so engaging and his argument so tantalizing, readers will quickly be drawn into the challenge - in the appendix, the author provides a concise training manual to do just that. A must-read field guide for the intellectually curious.\" \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e--\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eKirkus Reviews\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e, \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003estarred \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Tetlock and Gardner believe anyone can improve their forecasting ability by learning from the way they work. If that's true, people in business and finance who make an effort to do so have a lot to gain -- and those who don't, much to lose.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Financial Post \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\" \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting \u003c\/i\u003eis a very good book. In fact it is essential reading -- which I have never said in any of my previous \n\u003ci\u003eMT\u003c\/i\u003e reviews... It should be on every manager's and investor's reading list around the topics du jour of decision-making, prediction and behavioural economics.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eManagement Today \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"I've been hard on social science, even suggesting that 'social science' is an oxymoron. I noted, however, that social science has enormous potential, especially when it combines 'rigorous empiricism with a resistance to absolute answers.' The work of Philip Tetlock possesses these qualities.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eScientific American \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"One of the best books I've read this year... \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting \u003c\/i\u003eis a must read book.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eSeeking Alpha\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Keen to show that not all forecasting is a flop, Tetlock has conducted a new experiment that shows how you can make good forecasts, ones that routinely improve on predictions made by even the most well-informed expert. The book is full of excellent advice -- it is the best thing I have read on predictions, which is a subject I am keen on... Gardner has turned the research into readable examples and a flowing text, without losing rigour... This book shows that you can be better at forecasting.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Times of London\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\"We now expect every medicine to be tested before it is used. We ought to expect that everybody who aspires to high office is trained to understand why they are so likely to make mistakes forecasting complex events... Politics is harder than physics but Tetlock has shown that it doesn't have to be like astrology.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe Spectator\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Philip Tetlock is the world expert on a vital subject. \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting \u003c\/i\u003eis the wonderful story of how he and his research team got ordinary people to beat experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eDaniel Kahneman\u003c\/b\u003e, winner of the Nobel Prize and author of \n\u003ci\u003eThinking, Fast and Slow \u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\" \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e is a rare book that will make you smarter and wiser. One of the giants of behavioral science reveals how to improve at predicting the future.\" \n\u003ci\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e-- \n\u003cb\u003eAdam Grant\u003c\/b\u003e, \n\u003ci\u003eNew York Times\u003c\/i\u003e bestselling author of \n\u003ci\u003eOriginals \u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e \u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e \"The best way to know if an idea is right is to see if it predicts the future. But which ideas, which methods, which people have a track record of non-obvious predictions vindicated by the course of events? The answers will surprise you, and they have radical implications for politics, policy, journalism, education, and even epistemology--how we can best gain knowledge about the world. The casual style of \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting \u003c\/i\u003ebelies the profundity of its message.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eSteven Pinker\u003c\/b\u003e, Johnstone Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and author of \n\u003ci\u003eThe Better Angels of Our Nature \u003c\/i\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"Philip Tetlock's \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e is a common-sense guide to thinking about decision-making and the future by a man who knows this terrain like no one else.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003cb\u003eIan Bremmer\u003c\/b\u003e, \n\u003ci\u003e \u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eBloomberg Business' \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cb\u003eBest Books of 2015\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e \"In this accessible and lively book, Tetlock and Gardner recognize the centrality of probabilistic thinking to sound forecasting. Whether you are a policymaker or anyone else who wants to approach decisions with great rigor, \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e will serve as a highly useful guide.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eRobert E. Rubin\u003c\/b\u003e, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary \n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e \u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e \"How well can we predict the future, really? There is no better way to answer that question than to read this book. You will come away disillusioned about the ability of experts, but also enlightened about how the best forecasters do it--and maybe even hopeful about your own prospects.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eTyler Cowen\u003c\/b\u003e, Director of the George Mason University Mercatus Center and author of \n\u003ci\u003eAverage Is Over\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \"For thousands of years, people have listened to those who foretold the future with confidence and little accountability. In this book, Tetlock and Gardner free us from our foolishness. Full of great stories and simple statistics, \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e gives us a new way of thinking about the complexity of the world, the limitations of our minds, and why some people can consistently outpredict a dart-throwing chimp. Tetlock's research has the potential to revolutionize foreign policy, economic policy, and your own day-to-day decisions.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eJonathan Haidt\u003c\/b\u003e, New York University Stern School of Business, and author of \n\u003ci\u003eThe Righteous Mind\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"[ \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e] shows that you can get information from a lot of different sources. Knowledge is all around us and it doesn't have to come from the experts.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e--Joe LaVorgna, \u003ci\u003eBloomberg Business' \u003c\/i\u003eBest Books of 2015\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \"Good judgment and good forecasting are rare, but they turn out to be made of teachable skills. By forcing forecasters to compete, Tetlock discovered what the skills are and how they work, and this book teaches the ability to any interested reader.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eStewart Brand\u003c\/b\u003e, President, The Long Now Foundation \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \"Philip Tetlock is renowned for demonstrating that most experts are no better than 'dart-throwing monkeys' at predicting elections, wars, economic collapses and other events. In his brilliant new book, Tetlock offers a much more hopeful message, based once again on his own ground-breaking research. He shows that certain people can forecast events with accuracy much better than chance--and so, perhaps, can the rest of us, if we emulate the critical thinking of these 'superforecasters.' The self-empowerment genre doesn't get any smarter and more sophisticated than this.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eJohn Horgan\u003c\/b\u003e, Director, Center for Science Writings, Stevens Institute of Technology \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e\"Superforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e is the rare book that is both scholarly and engaging. The lessons are scientific, compelling, and enormously practical. Anyone who is in the forecasting business--and that's all of us--should drop what they are doing and read it.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eMichael J. Mauboussin\u003c\/b\u003e, Head of Global Financial Strategies, Credit Suisse \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\"[ \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e] highlights the techniques and attributes of superforecasters--that is, those whose predictions have been demonstrated to be remarkably accurate--in a manner that's both rigorous and readable. The lessons are directly relevant to business, finance, government, and politics.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e-- \n\u003cb\u003ePeter Orszag, \u003ci\u003eBloomberg Business' \u003c\/i\u003eBest Books of 2015\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \"There isn't a social scientist in the world I admire more than Phil Tetlock.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eTim Harford\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003ci\u003e, \u003c\/i\u003e author of \n\u003ci\u003e The Undercover Economist\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \"From the Oracle of Delphi to medieval astrologers to modern overconfident experts, forecasters have been either deluded or fraudulent. For the first time, \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e reveals the secret of making honest, reliable, effective, useful judgments about the future.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eAaron Brown\u003c\/b\u003e, Chief Risk Officer of AQR Capital Management and author of \n\u003ci\u003eThe Poker Face of Wall Street\u003c\/i\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \"Socrates had the insight in 'know thyself, ' Kahneman delivered the science in \n\u003ci\u003eThinking, Fast and Slow\u003c\/i\u003e, and now Tetlock has something we can all apply in \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e.\" \n\u003cbr\u003e -- \n\u003cb\u003eJuan Luis Perez\u003c\/b\u003e, Global Head of UBS Group Research\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eBiographical Note\u003c\/strong\u003e:\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cb\u003ePhilip E. Tetlock\u003c\/b\u003e is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of \n\u003ci\u003eExpert Political Judgment\u003c\/i\u003e and (with Aaron Belkin) \n\u003ci\u003eCounterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics\u003c\/i\u003e. \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cb\u003eDan Gardner\u003c\/b\u003e is a \n\u003ci\u003eNew York Times\u003c\/i\u003e bestselling author, speaker, and consultant. His three books on psychology and decision-making--published in 25 countries and 19 languages--have been praised by everyone from \n\u003ci\u003eThe Economist\u003c\/i\u003e to Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist, talking head, and investigative journalist who won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism. He is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs and lives in Ottawa, Canada.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePublisher Marketing\u003c\/strong\u003e:\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES \u003c\/i\u003eBESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY \u003ci\u003eTHE ECONOMIST \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003cb\u003e\"\u003c\/b\u003eThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's \u003ci\u003eThinking, Fast and Slow\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003cb\u003e\"\u003c\/b\u003e--Jason Zweig, \u003ci\u003eThe Wall Street Journal\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e In \n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are \"superforecasters.\" \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. \n\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\n\n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003c\/td\u003e\n\u003c\/tr\u003e\n\u003c\/table\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAuthor:\u003c\/b\u003e Tetlock, Philip E\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e Crown Publishing Group (NY)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBinding:\u003c\/b\u003e Paperback\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePub Date:\u003c\/b\u003e 2016-09-13\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBISAC:\u003c\/b\u003e Business \u0026amp; Economics|Forecasting|Social Science|Future Studies|Psychology|Cognitive Psychology \u0026amp; Cognition\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSubjects:\u003c\/b\u003e Economic forecasting|Forecasting\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eWeight:\u003c\/b\u003e 0.5 lbs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN:\u003c\/b\u003e 9780804136716\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eASIN:\u003c\/b\u003e -\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSKU:\u003c\/b\u003e SP-9780804136716\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Crown Publishing Group (NY)","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47710586339459,"sku":"SP-9780804136716","price":28.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0564\/6830\/8099\/files\/9780804136716_spiral.png?v=1785209446","url":"https:\/\/sebink.com\/products\/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction","provider":"Sebink","version":"1.0","type":"link"}